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European Security Since the Cold War – Prof. Mustafa Aydın

1 February 2024

Aims and Outputs

This lecture aims at presenting the wider security environment in and around Europe since the end of the Cold War. Its outputs include various security challenges and military responses to these, how the number of conflicts evolved in European neighborhoods, and how various wars took place within Europe despite expectations contrary. The lecture also summarizes alternative ways the European institutions and countries dealt with various military security challenges to European security since the end of the Cold War. It finishes with a snap outlook for the future and attempts to identify the most salient aspects of security threats to Europe.

Sub-Headings

Introduction

Post-Cold War Challenges

International Responses

Other Security Challenges

Conclusion

Introduction

The end of the Cold War in 1991 brought about a significant shift in the security landscape of Europe. The bipolar world order that had kept Europe divided and defined its security for nearly half a century was gone, replaced by a more fluid and uncertain security environment that created a new set of challenges.

In the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, there was a significant decline in military spending in Europe as the threat of a large-scale war between the blocs led by two superpowers receded. Many countries, particularly in the former Eastern bloc, dismantled part of their militaries and reduced their overall military spending. Benefitting the so-called peace dividend, European members of NATO spent 1.7% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense in 2008, while this figure was, on average, 3.1% for the Western European members of NATO between 1985 and 1989. This also affected the US, which, except for its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and Homeland Security Department, decreased its military spending from %6 to %4 of its GDP and downsized its presence in Europe during the same period.

However, the decline in military spending did not last long, and by the 2000s, European military spending started to increase as a response to several new security challenges that emerged in Europe, including ethnic conflicts in the Balkans, the rise of terrorism, and the threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Graph 1: Total military expenditure by region, 1960–2014.


Source: Todd Sandler and Justin George, “Military Expenditure Trends for 1960–2014 and What They Reveal”, Global Policy, Vol. 7 (2), May 2016: 174-185 (178).

 

Post-Cold War Challenges

One of the most immediate challenges was the need to manage the transition of the former Warsaw Pact countries to democracy and market economies. These countries were in a state of flux, and there was a real risk that they could be drawn into instability or even conflict. The United States and its European allies responded by providing financial and military assistance to these countries and by working to integrate them into Western institutions such as NATO and the European Union. As a result, by 2023, all the former Eastern European countries and most of the Central and Southeastern European countries, except a few in the Balkans, have become members of the EU and NATO.

Graph 2: Overlapping Membership of the NATO, EU, and OSCE, 2022


Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/12/infographic-nato-members-and-missions-interactive

Another challenge was the rise of ethnic and nationalist tensions in Europe due to the breakup of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. The emergence of new states in Europe and beyond was often accompanied by violence and ethnic cleansing. Some of the most notable conflicts in this period included the wars in the Balkans (Croatia, 1991-1995; Bosnia, 1992-1995; and Kosovo, 1998-1999), between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh (between 1988-1994 and between 2008 and 2020 with border clashes and a second 44-day war in 2020) and separatist conflicts in Georgia (in Abkhazia and South Ossetia since 1991 on and off with direct Russian intervention in 2008, and Acaria in the early 1990s as more of a prolonged dispute) in the South Caucasus, in Russia (Chechnya, 1994-1996 and 1999-2009), and in the wider Black Sea region (Transdniestria in Moldova since 1990, and Crimea and Donbas region in Ukraine since early 2010s ). These wars caused widespread death and destruction in the European neighborhood and affected European security calculations.

Map 1: Frozen Conflicts in the Wider Black Sea Region


Source: Why the Black Sea Matters, Policy Paper by the New Strategy Center &d Hudson Institute, May 2017, p. 5.

International Responses

The international community responded to these crises by deploying observation missions (the EU and OSCE where relevant), peacekeeping forces (NATO and the EU), and mediation offices (the EU and OSCE) to these regions.

NATO launched a series of crisis response operations, peace support operations, naval blockades, air strikes, and other types of missions in the Balkans in the early 2000s. NATO’s involvement in Bosnia and Herzegovina included its first mission to enforce an arms embargo from July 1992 (in cooperation with the Western European Union from 1993) and UN-mandated no-fly zone from October 1992 and later airstrikes against Serbian positions in August-October 1995. After the signing of the Dayton Peace Accord in December 1995, NATO deployed an UN-mandated Implementation Force (IFOR) comprising some 60,000 troops. This was followed in December 1996 by deploying a 32,000-strong Stabilization Force (SFOR), replaced in December 2004 by the European Union force deployed under Operation Althea.

Other NATO operations in the Balkans included the UN-mandated peacekeeping mission in Kosovo (KFOR) since 1999 and three successive operations in North Macedonia (2001-2003). There was also Operation Active Endeavour in the Mediterranean after the 9/11 attacks as a maritime counterterrorism and anti-trafficking operation. These interventions helped to stabilize the region and prevent further conflict, though they also led to increased tensions at times between NATO and Russia.

In addition to NATO, the OSCE has permanent missions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, and Moldova, a presence in Albania, a support program for Ukraine, and a Personal Representative of the Chairperson-in-Office on the OSCE Minsk Group. Through its missions, the OSCE has been trying to assist local authorities in diverse areas such as arms control, the fight against trafficking, electoral assistance; anti-corruption initiatives; gender mainstreaming and environmental projects; human rights protection; legislative, judicial, and media reform; and the capacity-building of law enforcement officials. Its support program for Ukraine was launched on 1 November 2022 “to address the immediate challenges to civilians posed by the war against Ukraine and to support the long-term democratic and social resilience of its institutions and civil society.” Finally, the Personal Representative of the Chairperson-in-Office, appointed first in August 1995 and based in Tbilisi, deals with issues related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Other Security Challenges

Beyond these issues, Europe has also faced several other security challenges since the end of the Cold War, including terrorism, cyber warfare, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, energy dependency on outside sources, and, more recently flux of refugees.

As the end of the Cold War coincided with the rise of international terrorism, terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS carried out attacks in Europe, killing and injuring hundreds of people. While the collapse of the Soviet Union led to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) across the world, the possibility that some of these weapons might fall into the hands of rogue states or terrorist groups created serious threats to European security.

In addition, the increasing use of technology brought new security challenges, especially in cyberspace. Possible cyber-attacks on critical infrastructures that could disrupt the smooth running of daily life have been a growing threat to European security, as already been demonstrated by the cyberattacks on Estonia in 2007 and Ukraine in 2022.

These challenges have led to a renewed focus on European security and several new initiatives (such as the European Security and Defence Policy – ESDP within the EU and European Security and Defence Identity – ESDI within NATO) and the expansion of both NATO and the European Union to former Warsaw Pact countries to improve cooperation and coordination among European countries.

In recent years, the security situation in Europe has become even more complex, mainly due to challenges emerging from its northern and southern neighborhoods. In the eastern neighborhood, the emergence of Russia as a revisionist state creates serious security problems. Its support to separatist Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions of Georgia, and even going war with that country in 2008, its later occupation and annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine since February 2022 have raised concerns about a new Cold War. In response, NATO has increased its military presence in Eastern Europe and stepped up its preparedness against Russia. In addition to sending much-needed military aid to Ukraine and imposing economic sanctions on Russia, European countries have also been trying to decrease their dependency on Russian energy resources.

Graph 3: Europe’s Energy Dependency on Outside Sources

Source: Marcus Lu, “Visualizing the EU’s Energy Dependency”, 22 March 2022, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-eus-energy-dependency/

In its southern neighborhood, various challenges that emerged since the Arab uprisings in 2010 have created an unstable security environment. Especially due to civil wars in Libya and Syria and other conflicts in the broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) region have led to a large-scale refugee crisis in Europe. This has put a strain on European resources, created a political backlash within Europe from xenophobic and ultra-right groups, and has generally raised concerns about security.

A related issue has been the rise of populism and nationalism in Europe that strain political systems and posed a long-term challenge to European security. These movements have often been critical of the European Union and have called for a reassertion of national sovereignty. This has led to concerns about the future of the European project and the potential for conflict between European countries.

 

Conclusion

The future of military security in Europe is uncertain. However, it is clear that the end of the Cold War has not led to the anticipated lasting peace in the region, and the so-called “peace dividend” was short-lived. New security challenges have emerged since then, and the balance of power in Europe is still evolving. Especially the rise of Russia as a revisionist state on its borders could increase tensions. Although the security challenges facing Europe today are complex and interconnected, and there is no easy solution to them, the European Union and NATO remain strong institutions, and they are likely to continue to play a key role in ensuring security in Europe.

Further Reading

  • Bailes, Alyson J. K. 2008. “The EU and a ‘better world’: what role for the European Security and Defence Policy?” International Affairs 84 (1): 115-130.

  • Clarke, John L. 2005. “What Roles and Missions for Europe’s Military and Security Forces in the 21st Century?”, Marshall Center Papers No 007, August, https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/marshall-center-papers/what-roles-and-missions-europes-military-and-security-forces-21st-century/what-roles-and-missions-europes.

  • Csernatoni, Raluca. 2020. “EU Security and Defense Challenges: Toward a European Defense Winter?” Carnegie Europe, 11 June, https://carnegieeurope.eu/2020/06/11/eu-security-and-defense-challenges-toward-european-defense-winter-pub-82032.

  • Domocoş, Carmen Adriana. 2019. “European Commonwealth Army – Challenge for a Proper EU Regulation.” Supplement of Law Review: 104-113.

  • Klocker, C., 2021. The UN Security Council and EU CSDP operations: exploring EU military operations from an outside perspective. Europe and the World: A law review, 5(1): 1-17.

  • Liberti, Fabio. 2011. “Defence spending in Europe: Can we do better without spending more?”, Notre Europe Policy Paper, No 46, https://institutdelors.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/policy46_fliberti_en.pdf.

  • Novaky, Niklas I. M. 2019. “The Credibility of European Union Military Operations’ Deterrence Postures.” International Peacekeeping 25 (2): 191-216.

  • Ramadani, Blerim. 2015. “The European Union Military Power: The New Challenges with Old Dilemmas.” Journal of Liberty and International Affairs 1 (2): 1-8.

  • Zajaczkowski, Kamil. 2020. “CSDP Missions and Operations as Instruments of EU Crisis Management – Their Essence, Role and Determinants.” Modeling the New Europe 34: 4-37.

 

Audio-Visual Recommendation

  • European Defence Agency, EU Defence Declassified podcasts series, 4 episodes, https://eda.europa.eu/news-and-events/podcast

  • European External Action Service, “EU Common Security and Defence Policy in Action”, 13 December 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVdz0vDOKuc

  • European Parliamentary Research Service, “European Defence”, 5 June 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj385Rq_66I&list=PLz31jYTN4xtmIE4etfkBxFbEHjyqiGADT&index=18

  • European Parliamentary Research Service, “Alexander Mattelaer: The European Council and CSDP: Success or failure?” 27 September 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YaLtPAQvJo

  • Investigate Europe podcast series, “Arming the EU – The long road towards a united defence”, 29 March 2022, https://open.spotify.com/episode/2wWKaSo31Bk9vM7wXBjpuN?si=aeccf7faa4dd44b1.

  • Mark Leonard’s World in 30 Minutes podcasts, “Summer series: Military and security dimensions of European sovereignty”, August 2018, https://open.spotify.com/episode/2LqKfC2nwCOXw9YQv2YulY?si=f59ac08f42864993

  • Norks Utenrikspolitisk Institutt (NUPI), The World Stage podcasts series, “Steven Blockmans, The EU’s role in European security and defence”, 6 May 2022, https://www.nupi.no/en/news/podcast-the-eu-s-role-in-european-security-and-defence.

  • The Policy Plug podcast series, “Episode 16 – European Defence Policy”, 28 January 2022, https://open.spotify.com/episode/6gORl54f7pqT0mM7wDrfs5?si=023266ff2f8444b7.